TMC Stock Soars Ahead of First U.S. Deep-Sea Mineral Permit Review

Stock Performance and Market Reaction

The Metals Company (TMC)’s shares closed at $7.48 on January 10, up 6.79% from the previous day, lifting its market capitalization to approximately $3.09 billion. Investors added roughly $225 million in valuation in a single session as they focused on whether TMC could secure the first commercial deep-sea mining permit under the U.S. Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSMHRA).

## Regulatory Process Under the DSMHRA - April 2025: Submission of one commercial recovery permit and two exploration licenses to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). - Within 30 days: NOAA conducts an initial determination of whether the application meets basic requirements. - Within 60 days: NOAA assesses the completeness of the commercial permit application before launching a full environmental and technical review.

Smooth passage through these early stages would bolster expectations for the development of deep-sea mining and processing infrastructure, potentially amounting to multi-billion-dollar investments.

Business Model and Strategic Positioning

TMC’s plan to harvest polymetallic nodules for nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese underpins its narrative as an electric-vehicle battery and energy-transition beneficiary. Despite “all-or-nothing” risk perceptions driven by regulatory and environmental debates, TMC has advanced diplomatic and regulatory discussions with the U.S. government and Pacific island nations. By partnering with Nauru and Tonga, TMC secured exploration rights in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone—one of the world’s largest prospective reservoirs of nickel and cobalt.

## Economic Impact and Strategic Significance In its latest corporate update, TMC projected that a U.S. deep-sea mining ecosystem could mobilize private capital in excess of several billion dollars across shipbuilding, port operations, refining and manufacturing sectors. This aligns with U.S. supply-chain security objectives and frames TMC as a flagship “American strategic minerals project.”

Risks and Market Outlook

Key uncertainties remain around NOAA’s final licensing decision and the International Seabed Authority’s (ISA) rulemaking on deep-sea mining. Strong opposition from environmental groups adds to the volatility risk. Market participants cautioned that the recent share price rally may be a “news lead,” with upcoming NOAA and ISA milestones set to determine the stock’s trajectory. If commercial deep-sea mining does not materialize, TMC’s inflated $3 billion valuation could face significant downward adjustment.

Trading volume exceeded 5.75 million shares—well above the recent average—reflecting elevated interest and divergent views on TMC’s regulatory path and commercial prospects.