TMC Targets U.S. Offshore Mineral Deposits Amid Regulatory Uncertainty, Market Cap Surges to $300 Million

The Metals Company (TMC) has extended its rally for four consecutive trading days in early January, trading in the mid-$7 range. As of the January 7 close at $7.58, shares have since fluctuated around $7.48, marking roughly a 20% surge in just one week. Its market capitalization has grown to about $3.09 billion, building on volatility that drove the stock up nearly 1,000% over the past six months and underscoring its pronounced sensitivity to policy-driven themes.

Underlying the recent rally are heightened expectations around U.S. deep-sea mineral development policies. According to FX Leaders, a foreign-exchange and derivatives news outlet, a January 12 report noted that U.S. efforts—together with allied nations—to strengthen critical mineral supply chains have spurred speculative inflows into unconventional mining solutions like TMC. In particular, TMC’s strategy to pursue deep-sea exploration licenses under U.S. law, rather than wait for regulations from the U.N.-affiliated International Seabed Authority, has captured investor attention. The ongoing review of exploration permits by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has emerged as a key market catalyst.

TMC aims to harvest polymetallic nodules from the Clarion-Clipperton Zone in the Pacific Ocean, securing nickel, cobalt, copper and manganese—core metals for electric-vehicle and other rechargeable batteries. In 2025, the company became the first to have seabed nodule resources recognized as both inferred and measured reserves. Following a Trump-era executive order on seabed mining, TMC applied for a commercial recovery permit and exploration license for U.S. deep-sea mining blocks, with a goal of commencing commercial production by the end of 2027. Several global consulting and industry reports identify TMC as a leading player in the deep-sea minerals market, suggesting it could play an expanded role in the global battery materials supply chain if regulatory hurdles are cleared.

However, as a pre-commercial venture, TMC’s valuation remains far more sensitive to policy, regulatory and environmental developments than to operating metrics. International environmental groups and some governments are calling for a moratorium on commercial deep-sea mining over ecosystem-damage concerns. Should the U.S. pursue a unilateral path that clashes with international consensus, permitting timelines could face further delays. With market cap now in the mid-$3 billion range (approximately KRW 4.4 trillion), the outcome of NOAA’s permit review and the trajectory of U.S.-China negotiations on critical minerals are likely to be the principal risk factors—and potential catalysts—for TMC’s share price going forward.