Inflation Eases but Oil Prices and War Persist: Insights into the Stagnant New York Stock Market

On March 11 (local time), the New York stock market closed mixed, lacking a clear direction. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.07% to 47,706.51, the S&P 500 fell 0.21% to 6,781.48, and the Nasdaq inched up 0.01% to 22,697.10. Although headline moves were modest, markets were choppy beneath the surface as signs of waning inflation, the Middle East conflict and strength in AI-related stocks collided.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported that February’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, in line with expectations. Core CPI came in at 2.5% year-over-year, suggesting steady underlying inflation but remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target—and reinforcing the view that the Fed won’t pivot to easier policy anytime soon. Derivatives traders have effectively priced in a rate hold at the March FOMC meeting and are forecasting only a single, modest cut later this year.

On the corporate front, Oracle shares jumped roughly 10% in pre-market and regular trading after the company beat revenue and earnings forecasts for its fiscal third quarter and reported double-digit growth in cloud and AI infrastructure sales, bolstering sentiment across the tech sector. However, rate-sensitive industries, airlines and consumer stocks were held back by geopolitical uncertainty and wild swings in energy prices, capping overall index gains.

In the Middle East, attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the deployment of naval mines amid the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict sent Brent crude above $90 a barrel, triggering intraday moves exceeding 5%. Frequent oil-price reversals rattled energy and transportation stocks, while concerns that a war-driven supply shock could spark second-round inflationary pressures dampened risk appetite market-wide. For investors, the takeaway is that—alongside the Fed’s interest-rate path—oil prices and Middle East tensions will remain key drivers of U.S. equity markets in the near term.