New York Stock Market Surges Amid Plummeting Oil Prices: The Trap of Relief Rally

On April 8 (local time), the New York stock market staged a sharp rebound, fueled by a US–Iran truce agreement and a steep drop in oil prices. The S&P 500 rose 2.5% to 6,782.81, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.9% to 47,909.92, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.8% to 22,634.99. Hopes of an easing energy shock reignited risk appetite, driving buy-in across both growth and cyclical sectors that had been under pressure.

The key catalyst was news that the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire and would conditionally reopen the Strait of Hormuz. WTI and Brent crude prices tumbled more than 15% in a single day, settling in the mid-$90 per barrel range, and airline, transportation and leisure stocks—where fuel costs account for a large share of expenses—rebounded strongly. Conversely, energy and defense shares, which had benefited from recent oil spikes, underperformed amid profit-taking.

Federal Reserve developments had a limited impact. That day’s release of the previous FOMC meeting minutes and a scheduled speech by Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, drew less attention than the easing of geopolitical risks. Nevertheless, with oil prices still well above pre-war levels, inflation not fully under control and uncertainty around the Fed’s pivot to easing, most experts view this rally as a short-term relief bounce rather than a lasting trend reversal. They advise maintaining defensive portfolio strategies until inflation and geopolitical risks subside.

On the stock-specific front, AI infrastructure investment momentum continued, independent of US–Iran tensions. Semiconductor names such as Broadcom extended gains after announcing long-term chip supply agreements with Google and Anthropic, further underpinning the market’s improved risk sentiment.

Note: As of this writing, data and official reports for the US market close on April 9 have not yet been fully compiled. This summary reflects New York trading on April 8, as of early morning on April 9 Korean time.