Oil Prices Rise, But Why Did the New York Stock Market Increase Again?

US stocks climbed again on April 9 (local time). The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 6,824.66, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6% to 48,185.80, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.8% to 22,822.42. Investors drew comfort from the continued two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, which has eased some Middle East risk. Still, West Texas Intermediate crude briefly spiked toward $103 intraday before settling at $97.87—up 3.7%—highlighting how geopolitical tensions continue to drive oil prices.

Economic data offered a mixed picture. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of core inflation came in somewhat higher than expected, while initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 last week. Although these levels remain far from historic highs, they signal a gradual buildup of economic slowdown risks. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.28%, roughly unchanged from the prior day but still above the 3.97% level seen before the conflict with Iran, prolonging borrowing cost pressures. Moreover, minutes from the Fed’s recent meeting revealed that some policymakers may consider further rate hikes if oil-driven inflation resurges, reinforcing market concerns about a prolonged high-rate environment.

At the individual stock level, earnings and news drove notable divergence. Constellation Brands, the beer and wine producer, surged 8.5% after reporting results that beat expectations. Shares of AI-related technology firms also rose on news that CoreWeave and Meta secured major cloud contracts. By contrast, diet-food maker Simply Good Foods tumbled 18.1% on disappointing sales. Looking ahead, even as the ceasefire holds, persistent worries over a Hormuz Strait blockade and volatile oil prices suggest that upcoming US CPI data, developments in the Middle East and the direction of Treasury yields will likely dictate global risk-asset performance for the time being.