Record Highs in New York Stock Market: The Real Message Amid Oil and Iran Risks

On June 22 in New York (early June 23 in Korea), U.S. stock markets all closed at fresh all-time highs. The S&P 500 gained 1.0% to finish at 7,137.90, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 49,490.03, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.6% to 24,657.57. A strong earnings season and renewed appetite for risk assets drove markets higher, although investors remain wary of potential conflict with Iran and a spike in oil prices.

Corporate results were the primary catalyst. GE Vernova’s stock jumped more than 13% after its quarterly profits and order intake—fuelled by strong demand from AI data centers—vastly exceeded expectations. Boston Scientific, Philip Morris and Boeing also delivered “earnings surprises” and saw their shares rise. With many S&P 500 companies reporting beats, concerns about an earnings slowdown in the first quarter have been largely offset.

At the same time, global risk factors are mounting. Brent crude oil surged over 3% in one day to top $101 per barrel, amid reports of Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and continued U.S. port sanctions on Iran. Higher energy costs stoke renewed inflation worries, weighing on oil-sensitive sectors and long-term bond yields. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury remains stuck above 4.3%, and Federal Reserve–chair nominee Kevin Warsh—tapped by former President Trump—has made clear he never promised rate cuts, tempering expectations of a near-term policy easing.

Policy shifts are also in focus. Expectations of follow-up action on last year’s cannabis-regulation executive order under the Trump administration sent shares of Tilray, Canopy Growth and other marijuana-related firms up more than 10%. Meanwhile, President Trump extended a truce with Iran while maintaining the embargo, leaving open the possibility of future supply shocks from the Middle East—another source of volatility for oil and risk assets.

For investors, this is a market environment defined by record highs driven by strong earnings on one hand, and geopolitical, oil-price and interest-rate uncertainty on the other. With key data—such as weekly jobless claims and manufacturing and services PMIs—due on June 23, inflation and growth forecasts could shift again. In this context, a selective approach focusing on companies with solid earnings and attractive valuations is preferable to chasing broad rallies.