Record-High Oil Prices, Federal Reserve, and Big Tech: Three Key Variables Captivating Wall Street

As of the morning of the 28th in Seoul time, New York markets closed mixed on the previous day (local time the 27th). The S&P 500 rose 0.12% to set another record high, the Nasdaq gained 0.2%, while the Dow fell 0.13%. Although record‐setting momentum persisted, tensions in the Middle East and a sharp rise in oil prices capped gains.

The main variable is the prospect of a protracted conflict in Iran. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent crude above $100 a barrel, up over 2%, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.33%. The Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index for April fell to –2.3, yet its selling‐price index jumped to the highest level since 2022, raising renewed inflation concerns.

Market attention is on the two‐day FOMC meeting. Futures markets assign well over a 90% probability that the federal funds rate will remain at 3.50–3.75%. Investors are focusing on Chair Jerome Powell’s final press conference to assess how high oil prices and the conflict may influence the future rate path. The dovish lean of Powell’s presumed successor, Kevin Warsh, also underpins medium‐term risk‐asset demand.

Corporate earnings continue to support the market. According to FactSet, more than 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported results above expectations. On the day, Verizon climbed over 1% on net subscriber growth and an upward revision to its profit outlook, while Domino’s plunged nearly 8% after missing estimates, illustrating divergent stock performance.

This week brings big-tech earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Apple, alongside monetary policy meetings at the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England. From a domestic investor’s perspective, three pillars—AI and big-tech results, Middle East geopolitical risk, and the combination of oil prices and the Fed’s stance—will be the key variables shaping the direction of global risk assets in the weeks ahead.